Australian Open Men’s Betting Preview: Djokovic and Federer Dominate the Market

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have won 10 of the last 13 Australian Open titles between them, so it should be no surprise to see the two titans far and ahead in the betting odds.

Defending champion Federer has won at Melbourne Park in each of the last two years, beating Rafael Nadal in the 2017 final and besting Marin Cilic a year ago, with Djokovic out to regain the crown he last wore in 2016.

Bet on the Australian Open Online at:

Betting Site

That title gave Djokovic his fifth win in six years at the Australian Open, but the Serbian has since endured a long road back to the top of the sport, again sitting number one in the rankings.

Djokovic took the top spot from Nadal last year and the Spaniard is the third favourite at tennis bookmakers despite the fact it is a decade since he won his only career title in Melbourne.

Nadal, like Djokovic, has been plagued by injuries in the latter phase of his career and it is easy to avoid him as a punter as a result, with the same true for the unfortunate Andy Murray.

The former world number one, who has lost five times in the final of the Australian Open, confessed at an emotional news conference that this could be his last ever tournament.

Hip pain continues to affect Murray and the two-time Olympic gold medalist will be a big loss to the sport if he does have to pack away his racket after the first major of the year.

2019 Australian Open Men’s Odds

Away from the traditional “Big Four,” there are some other names of note too – but who offers the best value in the betting odds for the 2019 Australian Open men’s title? Let’s take a look. As always, we begin with a comparison of the betting odds and will discuss some of the top picks below.
Novak Djokovic 6/5 23/20 11/10
Roger Federer 9/2 9/2 9/2
Rafael Nadal 9/1 8/1 8/1
Alexander Zverev 12/1 12/1 12/1
Marin Cilic 22/1 25/1 25/1
Kei Nishikori 25/1 25/1 22/1
Kevin Anderson 25/1 28/1 25/1
Karen Khachanov 25/1 25/1 20/1
Stan Wawrinka 28/1 40/1 33/1
Grigor Dimitrov 40/1 40/1 33/1
Dominic Thiem 40/1 40/1 50/1
Milos Raonic 40/1 40/1 50/1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 40/1 40/1 40/1
David Goffin 50/1 50/1 66/1
Borna Coric 50/1 45/1 50/1
Alex De Minaur 50/1 60/1 50/1
Tomas Berdych 66/1 70/1 66/1
Daniil Medvedev 66/1 40/1 66/1
Denis Shapovalov 80/1 80/1 100/1
Roberto Bautista Agut 80/1 70/1 66/1

Novak the Man to Beat

It is not a bold prediction to suggest Novak Djokovic has a fantastic chance of being the man who lifts the trophy at the end of two weeks of action at what is expected to be a baking Melbourne Park.

The Serbian superstar has dominated these courts over the years and 2018 saw him get back to near his best after a couple of years where it seemed as though his time had been and gone.

At just above even money, there is not a lot of excitement to be found in backing Djokovic but he is a proven front-runner who never crumbles under the pressure of being the main man to beat in an event.

Djokovic should not be unduly tested until around the fourth round, where he is due to come up against Daniil Medvedev, one of the most talented young players in the game right now. But Djokovic would still be expected to come through that match and it feels like he is a lock for the latter stages of the tournament. It would be some shock if he did not reach at least the semis.

But Federer’s Resilience Cannot be Ignored

It is remarkable to be able to talk about a 37-year-old as one of the favourites to win a major tennis tournament but Federer will try to continue rolling back the years at Melbourne Park.

Having won here two years in a row his chances should not be underestimated and, as the third seed in the draw, he has landed in the opposite half to Djokovic.

Nadal is the second seed so is scheduled to meet Federer in the semi-final, but it is questionable whether or not the Spaniard will be able to stay fit enough to get that far. Even if he does, Federer would be expected to come out on top in the latest chapter of their enduring rivalry.

Denis Istomin is up first for Federer, who will face a qualifier in the second round assuming he has no problems in getting over the opening hurdle of the tournament. There are few names who look able to stop Federer from getting to the final.

The bookies obviously believe Djokovic will face Federer in the final, but it is the older man who might just be the better bet out of the two. The Swiss is offered at 9/2 pretty much across the board, which is still short for a major tournament, but a good value compared to the Serb.

Murray Set to Bow Out?

Scottish star Murray could have dominated tennis had he had the luck to be born in a different era. Instead, he has had to battle with Djokovic, Federer and Nadal throughout his career – three of the all-time greats. Defending his Olympic crown ensures his own place in history, however.

But the former world number one can go out with his head held high as he has maximised his potential, winning a couple of hard-fought titles in his home grand slam at Wimbledon, as well as delivering a Davis Cup triumph for Great Britain practically single-handedly.

Murray has indicated he hopes to make it to Wimbledon for his farewell appearance but Australian Open fans will want him to dig deep and give them some more memories.

It goes without saying that, even at 100/1, Murray is unbackable here. He is unseeded and landed against Roberto Bautista-Agut in the first round, with the Spaniard in good form and highly likely to come through that clash given the hip problems we know Murray is battling.

Nadal is also difficult to get on board with for similar fitness reasons, especially given the best price available for the Spaniard remains short of 10/1. Nadal will probably fight back to the top again at some point this year – probably at Roland Garros – but it is asking a lot for his revival to come at Melbourne Park, where he has a fairly mediocre record considering his quality.

Last season’s beaten finalist Cilic, at 25/1, is another big name we are happy to discount here.

Can Young Talent Break Through?

There are plenty of good young players on the ATP Tour right now, but it is possible to argue there are not any great ones.

Alex Zverev, long tipped as the man to break the Djokovic-Federer-Nadal dominance of the last couple of years, is still yet to show he can perform on the biggest of stages.

The German has plenty of time to iron out the kinks in his game, but inconsistency will cost him over five-set matches for now. At 12/1, the fourth seed is by far too short to back here.

However, Federer and Djokovic being clear at the top of the betting odds for the Australian Open title does mean there are some big prices available that are well worth considering.

Karen Khachanov, the 10th seed, for example. The Russian can be backed at 30/1 and although he would need to put his best ever run of form together to win here, he has the talent.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is another option, with the Greek offered at a price of 40/1. It may be the case that 2020 is the year he really leaps to the fore, but do not count him out being a threat this time.

Australian Open Men’s Best Bets

Djokovic and Federer are the two men to beat – it is clear from the betting odds and the bookmakers are highly likely to be right.

Unlike the women’s draw, which looks very unpredictable, a Federer-Djokovic final is about the safest prediction that could be made here.

As such, Federer at 9/2 is preferred in terms of value out of the two men, especially as he has lifted the trophy in each of the last two years. Djokovic is just too short to support.

Khachanov is perhaps the most likely player to cause what would be a huge upset, with 25/1 worth considering on an each-way basis, for which Tsitsipas at 40/1 is not a terrible choice.

But realistically, the title is expected to come down to between Federer and Djokovic, so hunting for value at Melbourne Park is going to be tricky this year.

The always entertaining Nick Kyrgios was looking good at 66/1, but his fall to Milos Raonic has put that idea on ice.