Betting on the 2018 ATP Finals: Djokovic Favourite After Nadal’s Withdrawal

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are the clear favourites for the 2018 ATP Finals title following the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal.

The Spanish great had tried to recover from an ankle injury in time to take his place in London but ran out of time to prove his fitness for the last major tournament of the year.


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Federer and Djokovic have won the event 11 times between them, so it is no surprise at all to see the bookmakers place these two men at the top of the ATP Finals betting odds.

But last year there was a surprise winner as Grigor Dimitrov capitalised on injuries to some of the top players to triumph in the final against the Belgian player David Goffin.

The format for the ATP Finals sees the eight qualifiers split into two groups of four, with every player given three matches in the round robin stage of the tournament. The top two in each of the two groups will then progress to the semi-finals, with the winner of the Guga Kuerten group playing the victor of the Lleyton Hewitt group and vice versa

Federer and Djokovic are not in the same group, so the draw has thrown up the enticing prospect of the two players facing off in the final of the event. But where is the best value to be found in the betting odds for the ATP Finals? Let’s compare the outright ATP Finals odds and then take a close look at the top picks below.

2018 ATP Finals Odds

  ComeOn.com 888sport.com WilliamHill.com
Novak Djokovic 20/33 4/6 8/13
Roger Federer 5/2 5/2 11/4
Alexander Zverev 11/1 8/1 12/1
Marin Cilic 12/1 12/1 12/1
Kei Nishikori 20/1 15/1 22/1
Kevin Anderson 22/1 12/1 25/1
Dominic Thiem 25/1 15/1 28/1
John Isner 30/1 20/1 28/1
  www.comeon.com www.888sport.com www.williamhill.com

Novak Djokovic Looks to Match Federer’s Sixth Title

A winner of the tournament five times in the past, Novak Djokovic is the man to beat in London and this is reflected in his price of 8/13 to win the ATP Finals title.

The Serbian is in the Kuerten group with Marin Cilic, Alexander Zverev and John Isner, a section that will pose challenges, but Djokovic will still expect to win.

It has been a great year for Djokovic who is set to end 2018 as the world number one, having usurped Nadal thanks partly to the Spaniard’s injury-affected last few months.

Djokovic ends the year as the world number one for the fifth time in his career, but he has the chance to wrap up 2018 on a high. It would be a bold move to bet against him this week.

Roger Federer Still a Major Contender

Leading the way in the Hewitt section of the draw is Roger Federer, with his six ATP Finals titles more than any other player in the history of the competition.

The last of those came back in 2011, however, so Federer’s price of around the 11/4 with the bookmakers may be a touch too short for some tennis fans to be interested in backing.

Since a disappointing performance at the US Open, Federer has reached at least the semi-finals of his last three events, losing to Djokovic in the Paris Masters last four.

Assuming the 37-year-old is fit enough to compete, he will be expected to come through a Hewitt group that also contains Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori and Kevin Anderson.

Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev Offer Value Options

With Djokovic and Federer so far clear in the betting odds for the ATP Finals, there are a lot of value opportunities for those who are willing to back one of the less fancied players.

Each way options for the tournament mean fans can make a profit even if their player only gets to the final, making the likes of Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev extremely tempting options for this week.

Djokovic’s group is perhaps the stronger of the two, with Cilic and Zverev expected to compete to qualify for the last four along with the world number one, with Isner the rank outsider.

Cilic, who is offered at the 12/1 mark to triumph at the ATP Finals, has never been beyond the round robin stage of the tournament, so he has little history to speak of here.

Zverev remains one of the sport’s most glittering rising stars and this could be the ideal stage for him to announce himself as a multiple Grand Slam winner of the future.

The young German is one win away from matching his total of 55 victories from his breakthrough 2017 and he appears to be a solid selection at a price of 12/1, the same as Cilic.

Isner, meanwhile, has guaranteed he will finish in the top 10 of the world for the first time in his career, but the big-serving American is not expected to be a major threat in London.

Indeed, he may do well to win any of his three matches with a massive price of 30/1 reflecting the fact Isner may be in danger of being outclassed.

Anderson a Threat on London Debut

Making his first ever appearance in the ATP Finals is giant South African Kevin Anderson, who will be looking to end what has been the most successful season of his career on a high.

Ranked six in the world as he heads to London, Anderson is in Federer’s group and will fancy his chances of being able to finish in the top two to move through to the semi-finals.

A fast indoor hard court should suit his game perfectly and Anderson has improved a great deal in terms of his mental strength this year – he should not be underestimated.

With odds of around the 25/1 mark widely available for Anderson to lift the ATP Finals trophy at the end of the week, he makes up another very strong value selection on an each way basis.

ATP Finals Best Bets

It is hard to look past Djokovic as the winner of the event as he has proven himself as the man to beat over the last couple of months.

Federer’s form has been more mixed and it is unclear exactly how fit he is for the tournament, so Djokovic is certainly preferred despite his short odds of 8/13 to claim a sixth title.

With little profit to be made on Djokovic it is understandable if tennis fans want to look elsewhere for some value, which is where Anderson might come in at 25/1.

Each way bets here only need the player to reach the final to pay out and Anderson has every chance of progressing from the group that also features Federer.

Of the other eight contenders, Zverev is the best alternative option for this week’s tournament.