ATP Finals Betting Preview: Federer Favourite Due to Nadal Injury Woe

Roger Federer will start the 2017 ATP Finals as favourite to end the year in the best possible fashion by claiming the last title on offer this year.

Rafael Nadal has already secured the number one spot in the world rankings for the start of 2017 after Federer opted to pull out of playing at the Paris Masters.

After Nadal also pulled out of the tournament there were suggestions the Spaniard would be unable to take his place at the eight-man event, which is being held at London’s O2 Arena.

But both Federer and Nadal look set to compete in the ATP Finals and they have been kept apart in the draw, meaning they could face off in the knockout stages of the competition.

Federer and Nadal understandably top the odds for the ATP Finals, but all eight players will insist they have a chance of coming out on top and claiming up to $2.5 million prize money.

Nitto ATP Finals Betting Odds

Competition is tight heading into the 2017 ATP Finals in London with a lineup of eight of the world’s best prepared to do battle. Federer and Nadal lead the way as betting favourites, but Federer is the clear favourite of the bunch with odds that fall short of even money. Federer’s standout year combined with Nadal’s questionable knee combine to make the Swiss sensation this year’s man to beat.

Odds from International Betting Sites

 

  ComeOn.com Betsson.com 888Sport.com
Roger Federer 20/33 13/20 4/6
Rafael Nadal 7/2 7/2 7/2
Alexander Zverev 8/1 15/2 8/1
Grigor Dimitrov 9/1 11/1 10/1
Marin Cilic 11/1 11/1 10/1
David Goffin 16/1 20/1 15/1
Jack Sock 20/1 20/1 20/1
Dominic Thiem 22/1 20/1 20/1
  www.comeon.com www.betsson.com www.888sport.com

 

Federer Favourite to Cap Stunning Year

Best odds: 4/6 at 888Sport

Right at the top of the ATP Finals odds is Federer, who can be backed at around the 4/6 mark to record what would be his seventh success at the tournament.

Federer is regarded by the best indoor player in the game by a long distance, so the fact the tournament is being played at the O2 Arena in London is certainly in his favour.

And the Swiss has been handed a relatively easy match first up, against Paris Masters champion Jack Sock, the outsider for the tournament, with that game played on Sunday.

Federer withdrew from the Paris Masters so he could be fully fit to play at the ATP Finals and when he has made similar decisions this year his choice has been rewarded in style.

The veteran did not enter the French Open and went on to win Wimbledon for the eighth time a couple of weeks later, so managing his workload carefully has been working for Federer.

His price may look a touch short, but there is no doubting Federer is the man to beat here.

Doubts Over Nadal’s Knee

Best odds: 7/2 at ComeOn

Rafael Nadal appears set to play the ATP Finals despite speculation he would not be fit to play, but there have to be questions marks about his ability to produce his best tennis.

The Spaniard has had a brilliant year, winning the French Open and US Open crowns, while reclaiming the world number one ranking was one of his top targets.

But Nadal will still want more, especially as the tournament offers a chance to get one over on his old rival Federer, who has been drawn in the other group.

Nadal is in the Pete Sampras group along with Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin, a series of matches he should come through to take his place in the knockout rounds.

But at around the 4/1 mark it is too hard to support Nadal here due to his dodgy knee.

Zverev’s Incredible Rise to Continue?

Best odds: 8/1 at ComeOn

Alexander Zverev may have gone off the boil in the last couple of months, but 2017 will be remembered as the year he joined the elite.

The young German opted not to play at the Next Gen ATP Finals this month so he could prepare properly for London, having won two Masters titles earlier in the year.

Ranked three in the world, Zverev has to be considered a genuine contender for the ATP Finals crown, although there are slight doubts about his mentality on the big stage.

Zverev has yet to go deep into a major tournament and there will be no easy matches in London, with a game against the wily old pro Marin Cilic a tricky way to get started.

If Zverev produces his best tennis he could go all the way, but the German has struggled with his form of late and simply does not justify his third-favourite status at a price of 8/1.

Best Year of Grigor Dimitrov’s Career

Best odds: 11/1 at Betsson

Like Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov has had the best year of his career, having won in Cincinnati to claim his first ever Masters series title.

But something about the Bulgarian seems to hold him back from being in the running when the majors come around and these shortcomings are likely to be on show again in London.

Although Dimitrov got to the semi-finals of the Australian Open this year, he found Nadal to be too strong and he faces the Spaniard in the group stage of the ATP Finals.

Getting through the group stage would be a decent achievement for Dimitrov, but it is difficult to see how he could make it through to the final of the event.

Dimitrov is available to back at around the 10/1 mark, a price that seems fair given the ongoing questions over his mentality in the biggest tournaments.

Marin Cilic Power Always a Threat

Best odds: 11/1 at ComeOn

A potential dark horse is Marin Cilic, who will fancy his chances of getting off to a flyer when he faces the Zverev, the youngest man in the tournament, first up.

But Cilic must bury the scars of his thrashing in the Wimbledon final against Federer, who he will face in the group stage of this event.

The Croatian has reached two finals in London and he will be keen to show the city what he can do after failing on both occasions.

A price of around 12/1 for Cilic to go all the way might just be worth considering, but only on an each-way basis.

David Goffin Makes History for Belgium

Best odds: 20/1 at Betsson

Although Goffin competed as a replacement last year, the Belgian has qualified for the ATP Finals directly for the first time in his career.

As a result, Goffin is the first Belgian singles player in the 48-year history of the ATP Finals, having won over 50 matches in 2017 to earn his place at the event.

Odds of 20/1 suggest Goffin has little chance of winning the tournament, but having claimed back-to-back ATP World Tour titles in October he is in decent form.

Goffin is perhaps a dark horse to come out on top and having broken into the top 10 of the world rankings in 2017 he will be keen to end the year on a high.

Jack Sock in After Paris Masters Success

Best odds: 20/1 at 888Sport

Perhaps the biggest surprise face of the eight qualifiers is Sock, the American who claimed the Paris Masters title to secure the last spot.

The 25-year-old is at the event for the first time and it remains to be seen how he will cope with what can be a highly intense format.

Sock has previously suffered from health problems in high-pressure matches, but the indoor environment of the O2 Arena in London should ensure this is not a problem.

Nevertheless, a lack of high-class titles on his record until the Paris Masters suggests 25/1 is about right for Sock.

Realistically, the American will just be happy to have been able to qualify for the ATP Finals.

Dominic Thiem the Outsider due to Poor Form

Best odds: 22/1 at ComeOn

Wrapping up the eight players who have qualified for the ATP Finals is Austria’s Dominic Thiem, who is available at the same 25/1 price as Sock.

Thiem is ranked four in the world but heads to London in poor form, having won only two singles tournament matches since losing in the round-of-16 to Juan Martin del Potro at the US Open.

As such, it is impossible to recommend a bet on the 24-year-old, who has qualified for the tournament for the second time in his career.

ATP Finals Best Bets

Federer dominates the ATP Finals betting and it is hard to argue against the Swiss being the strongest candidate for the title.

He should be fresh having opted to skip the Paris Masters and a match against Sock on Sunday ought to be a straightforward start to the tournament. Federer is the only man in the field who has won this competition before in his career, which looks to be a telling statistic.

Having also been drawn with the out-of-form Thiem and fellow outsider Sock, Federer’s path to the knockout round looks to be very easy and indoors he is always going to be the man to beat.

Federer has won against top-10 opponents on 12 of 13 occasions this year and those numbers mean that even at a price of just 4/6, he has to be the selection here.

Each-way picks need to reach the final for the bet to be a winner and a couple of options stand out from the crowd here.

At 11/1, Cilic has a decent shot of reaching his third London final of the year, with the Croatian only 10 ranking points behind Thiem as he aims to finish 2017 in the world’s top four.

Goffin is one of the most in-form players on the tour and a price of 20/1 is far too big in an eight-man field. Although he would be a shock winner, those odds may provide some value.

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